Schuckman: It's all in the name for Derby picks
During the NCAA Tournament, as fans reveal how they filled out their bracket, you tend to chuckle at the ones who made their selections based on mascots or team colors.
And you often forget you do the same thing.
Come Saturday, when 20 horses line up for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, my pick-to-click won't be based on odds, pedigree, trainer or track conditions. What gate they start from doesn't matter either.
It's all about the name.
As shameful as that may be to those cashing in at the track or the off-track betting parlors, it's always been my strategy. What worked once is bound to work again, right?
This started in 1995, when I had the third pick in an office pool and chose Thunder Gulch because I thought it was a powerful name. Little did I know the horse's odds were 25-1, but I was lucky to pick a horse trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by jockey Gary Stevens.
That spelled victory.
Starting from Post 16, Thunder Gulch rounded Churchill Downs in 2 minutes, 1.2 seconds to become one of four Derby winners trained by Lukas. Had I been smart, I would have said I based my pick on the trainer, but I didn't know enough about horse racing at that point to even know who Lukas was.
Although I've become more familiar with racing's significant names, it hasn't changed the way I play the game.
And it hasn't always worked so well.
In 2006, there was no more menacing name in the field than Sinister Minister. While most horses and their jockeys come out in vibrant colors, you could envision this horse strolling onto the track in all black.
As it turned out, there was nothing sinister about this entry. Sinister Minister went off as a 12-1 favorite but stumbled home in 16th place as Barbaro won the Derby.
That wasn't my worst call.
In 2005, my affinity for poker got the better of me. A horse called High Limit screamed out for me to back it, and I watched it finish dead last on a day Giacomo won the title.
There have also been some successes, not as great as Thunder Gulch, but horses who made themselves part of the story. In 2003, Eye of the Tiger finished fifth as Funny Cide took the crown. And in 2001, Invisible Ink was second behind Monarchos.
This year, Big Brown is expected to go off as the betting favorite. As of Thursday, the horse had 3-1 odds starting from the 20th gate, but the name doesn't sizzle. Neither does his crew.
His trainer, Richard Dutrow Jr., has never worked with a Derby winning horse, although jockey Kent Desormeaux is in the Racing Hall of Fame and guided Fusaichi Pegasus to the 2000 Derby crown.
You won't find horses from top trainers like Lukas or Bob Baffert in the field. Nick Zito and Barclay Tagg, who have trained Derby winners, each have two horses, although only Tagg's 50-1 longshot Big Truck has a mildly entertaining name.
In fact, only one name burns up the track.
Going off at 6-1, from the ninth gate, is Pyro. The horse has won seven times in 13 starts and is good position starting near the middle of the field. That could lead to a blistering performance.
Or he might just go down in flames.
-- mschuckman@whig.com/221-3366