By STEVE EIGHINGER
Herald-Whig Staff Writer
Halloween may have just ended and Thanksgiving remains weeks away, but for retailers it's already the Christmas shopping season.
"We usually look at Nov. 1 as the beginning of the holiday shopping season," said Vickie Marine, co-manager of the Walmart Supercenter in Quincy. "We're getting the Christmas displays up and a lot of the decorations."
Retailers nationwide are not expecting any miracles at the cash register. Overall, the retailing industry posted a sales decline of about 2 percent last Christmas season, its weakest performance since the late 1960s when the U.S. Commerce Department began tracking holiday sales figures.
Results for stores that sell clothing and luxury goods were worse, declining by double digits on the average. By contrast, several reports published in the last few days, including surveys by Nielsen and Deloitte, forecast no change in holiday sales from last year to this year. That translates into some optimism that the worst is over and this year will be the equivalent of simply riding out the storm.
Carolyn Hammerquist, assistant store manager of Big Lots in Quincy, reports holiday-type sales have already been brisk. Big Lots has had Christmas-related items up since mid-to-late October.
"The day after Thanksgiving is still the first big day of the holiday shopping season, but we've already been selling a lot of Christmas things," Hammerquist said.
Hammerquist said popular items so far have been ornaments, blow-up Santas, music-related products and toys. A wide assortment of artificial Christmas trees and lights will be the next to pick up in popularity, she predicts.
"Furniture and jewelry are also popular (Christmas purchases) this time of the year," Hammerquist said. "People like holiday food items, too."
The National Retail Federation, a trade group, predicted last week that November and December sales will decline 1 percent this year to $437.6 billion. This decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year's 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales, nor as severe as the 3 percent decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009.
The NRF also said that some hopeful signs of a recovery have begun to emerge, like better-than-expected sales late in the summer and momentum in the stock market. However, continued consumer uncertainty over job security and housing values are expected to take a toll on spending this holiday season.
A holiday study published by Nielsen this week found that 85 percent of households expect to spend the same or less this year than last year.
"Our holiday sales usually begin to pick up in mid-November," said Sarah Ginster, manager at the Cato women's clothing store in Quincy. "It stays crazy right up to about Christmas eve. On Christmas eve, about the only people out shopping are the guys who forgot to get something for their girlfriends or wives."
The International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade group, has published one of the most optimistic of the holiday reports so far, forecasting a 1 percent year-over-year sales increase in November and December for stores open at least a year.
"Does the retail industry need a miracle to have positive year-over-year sales growth during the 2009 holiday season?," the report said. "No, but should you see Kris Kringle at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, put in a request for one anyway!"
-- seighinger@whig.com/221-3377
